Economist Nouriel Roubini made remarkable statements about the future of the US economy.
Roubini, a senior advisor at Hudson Bay Capital, said technological advances would offset the impact of trade tariffs. He said the U.S. is a leader in future fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and green technology. “Technology outweighs tariffs,” he said.
According to Roubini, this technological superiority could increase the potential growth rate of the United States from 2% to 4% by 2030. In contrast, the economist stated that the impact of tariffs and immigration restrictions could only reduce growth by 0.5%, and that technological progress would more than compensate for this loss.
Roubini, who believes that the high tariffs that Donald Trump plans to impose will also be limited by the market, said: “Bond investors will force Trump to back down. The most powerful parties are the market disciplinarians.”
In the short term, Roubini predicts a slowdown in the economy. He said that cost increases due to customs duties could push inflation to 4%, which could restrict consumer spending and lead to a loss of confidence in both the consumer and business world. In this context, he said a “short and shallow” recession could occur in the last quarter of 2025.
Roubini also responded to the question of how the FED would act in this situation, saying that the central bank would want to see clear signs of a recession before cutting interest rates. “Inflation expectations are still under control. The Fed will be patient and wait for the data,” Roubini said, adding that he thought lessons had been learned from mistakes made in previous periods.
Roubini also said that the weakening of the dollar could put additional pressure on inflation by increasing import prices, and therefore the Fed should not make sudden interest rate cuts. He added that long-term bond yields could diverge from the Fed policy due to reasons such as the increasing budget deficit.
Roubini stated that despite the short-term difficulties in the economy, the US has a strong growth potential in the long term thanks to its innovative structure, and said, “Customs duties are temporary, but technology is a permanent advantage.”
*This is not investment advice.
Leave a Reply